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IBM reveals its top five innovation predictions for the next five years

IBM reveals its top five innovation predictions for the next five years

IBM director of education transformation Chalapathy Neti.

IBM revealed its predictions for five big innovations that will change our lives within five years.

Bernie Meyerson, vice president of innovation at IBM.

Bernie Meyerson, the vice president of innovation at IBM.

The IBM “5 in 5″ is the eighth year in a row that IBM has made predictions about technology, and this year’s prognostications are sure to get people talking. We discussed them with Bernie Meyerson, the vice president of innovation at IBM, and he told us that the goal of the predictions is to better marshal the company’s resources in order to make them come true.

“We try to get a sense of where the world is going because that focuses where we put our efforts,” Meyerson said. “The harder part is nailing down what you want to focus on. Unless you stick your neck out and say this is where the world is going, it’s hard to you can turn around and say you will get there first. These are seminal shifts. We want to be there, enabling them.”

(See our complete interview with Meyerson here).

In a nutshell, IBM says:

  • The classroom will learn you.
  • Buying local will beat online.
  • Doctors will use your DNA to keep you well.
  • A digital guardian will protect you online.
  • The city will help you live in it.

Meyerson said that this year’s ideas are based on the fact that everything will learn. Machines will learn about us, reason, and engage in a much more natural and personalized way. IBM can already figure out your personality by deciphering 200 of your tweets, and its capability to read your wishes will only get better. The innovations are being enabled by cloud computing, big data analytics (the company recently formed its own customer-focused big data analytics lab), and adaptive learning technologies. IBM believes the technologies will be developed with the appropriate safeguards for privacy and security, but each of these predictions raises additional privacy and security issues.

As computers get smarter and more compact, they will be built into more devices that help us do things when we need them done. IBM believes that these breakthroughs in computing will amplify our human abilities. The company came up with the predictions by querying its 220,000 technical people in a bottoms-up fashion and tapping the leadership of its vast research labs in a top-down effort.

Here’s some more detailed description and analysis on the predictions.

In five years, the classroom will learn you.

In five years, the classroom will learn you to help tailor instruction to your individual needs.

The classroom will learn you

Globally, two out of three adults haven’t gotten the equivalent of a high school education. But IBM believes the classrooms of the future will give educators the tools to learn about every student, providing them with a tailored curriculum from kindergarten to high school.

“Your teacher spends time getting to know you every year,” Meyerson said. “What if they already knew everything about how you learn?”

In the next five years, IBM believes teachers will use “longitudinal data” such as test scores, attendance, and student behavior on electronic learning platforms — and not just the results of aptitude tests. Sophisticated analytics delivered over the cloud will help teachers make decisions about which students are at risk, their roadblocks, and the way to help them. IBM is working on a research project with the Gwinnett County Public Schools in Georgia, the 14th largest school district in the U.S. with 170,000 students. The goal is to increase the district’s graduation rate. And after a $10 billion investment in analytics, IBM believes it can harness big data to help students out.

“You’ll be able to pick up problems like dyslexia instantly,” Meyerson said. “If a child has extraordinary abilities, they can be recognized. With 30 kids in a class, a teacher cannot do it themselves. This doesn’t replace them. It allows them to be far more effective. Right now, the experience in a big box store doesn’t resemble this, but it will get there.”

In five years, buying local will beat online as you get online data at your fingertips in the store.

In five years, buying local will beat online as you get online data at your fingertips in the store.

Buying local will beat online

Online sales topped $1 trillion worldwide last year, and many physical retailers have gone out of business as they fail to compete on price with the likes of Amazon. But innovations for physical stores will make buying local turn out better. Retailers will use the immediacy of the store and proximity to customers to create experiences that online-only retail can’t replicate. The innovations will bring the power of the Web right to where the shopper can touch it. Retailers could rely on artificial intelligence akin to IBM’s Watson, which played Jeopardy better than many human competitors. The Web can make sales associates smarter, and augmented reality can deliver more information to the store shelves. With these technologies, stores will be able to anticipate what a shopper most wants and needs.

And they won’t have to wait two days for shipping.

“The store will ask if you would like to see a certain camera and have a salesperson meet you in a certain aisle where it is located,” Meyerson said. “The ability to do this painlessly, without the normal hassle of trying to find help, is very powerful.”

This technology will get so good that online retailers are likely to set up retail showrooms to help their own sales.

“It has been physical against online,” Meyerson said. “But in this case, it is combining them. What that enables you to do is that mom-and-pop stores can offer the same services as the big online retailers. The tech they have to serve you is as good as anything in online shopping. It is an interesting evolution but it is coming.”

In five years, doctors will routinely use your DNA to keep you well.


In five years, doctors will routinely use your DNA to keep you well.

Doctors will use your DNA to keep you well

Global cancer rates are expected to jump by 75 percent by 2030. IBM wants computers to help doctors understand how a tumor affects a patient down to their DNA. They could then figure out what medications will best work against the cancer, and fulfill it with a personalized cancer treatment plan. The hope is that genomic insights will reduce the time it takes to find a treatment down from weeks to minutes.

“The ability to correlate a person’s DNA against the results of treatment with a certain protocol could be a huge breakthrough,” Meyerson said. It’ll be able to scan your DNA and find out if any magic bullet treatments exist that will address your particular ailment.

IBM recently made a breakthrough with a nanomedicine that it can engineer to latch on to fungal cells in the body and attack them by piercing their cell membranes. The fungi won’t be able to adapt to these kinds of physical attacks easily. That sort of advance, where the attack is tailored against particular kinds of cells, will be more common in the future.

In five years, a digital guardian will protect you online.

In five years, a digital guardian will protect you online.

A digital guardian will protect you online

We have multiple passwords, identifications, and devices than ever before. But security across them is highly fragmented. In 2012, 12 million people were victims of identity fraud in the U.S. In five years, IBM envisions a digital guardian that will become trained to focus on the people and items it’s entrusted with. This smart guardian will sort through contextual, situational, and historical data to verify a person’s identity on different devices. The guardian can learn about a user and make an inference about behavior that is out of the norm and may be the result of someone stealing that person’s identity. With 360 degrees of data about someone, it will be much harder to steal an identity.

“In this case, you don’t look for the signature of an attack,” Meyerson said. “It looks at your behavior with a device and spots something anomalous. It screams when there is something out of the norm.”

In five years, the city will help you live in it.

In five years, the city will help you live in it.

The city will help you live in it

IBM says that, by 2030, the towns and cities of the developing world will make up 80 percent of urban humanity and by 2050, seven out of every 10 people will be a city dweller. To deal with that growth, the only way cities can manage is to have automation, where smarter cities can understand in real-time how billions of events occur as computers learn to understand what people need, what they like, what they do, and how they move from place to place.

IBM predicts that cities will digest information freely provided by citizens to place resources where they are needed. Mobile devices and social engagement will help citizens strike up a conversation with their city leaders. Such a concept is already in motion in Brazil, where IBM researchers are working with a crowdsourcing tool that people can use to report accessibility problems, via their mobile phones, to help those with disabilities better navigate urban streets.

Of course, as in the upcoming video game Watch Dogs from Ubisoft, a bad guy could hack into the city and use its monitoring systems in nefarious ways. But Meyerson said, “I’d rather have the city linked. Then I can protect it. You have an agent that looks over the city. If some wise guy wants to make the sewage pumps run backwards, the system will shut that down.”

The advantage of the ultraconnected city is that feedback is instantaneous and the city government can be much more responsive.

Source: http://venturebeat.com


How your Phone could be able to Smell, Hear and Taste by 2018: IBM Reveals its Vision for the Future of Technology

IBM has revealed its predictions for the computer we will all be using in 2018 – and it believes they will have all five senses, and will communicate with us in radically different ways.

‘Infrared and haptic technologies will enable a smart phone’s touchscreen technology and vibration capabilities to simulate the physical sensation of touching something,’ the firm said.

IBM's vision for the future of touch - it claims that in five years we will be able to touch objects through our phones

IBM’s vision for the future of touch – it claims that in five years we will be able to touch objects through our phones

‘So you could experience the silkiness of that catalog’s Egyptian cotton sheets instead of just relying on some copywriter to convince you.

‘It’s amazing when you look back over the 60+ years of the computing revolution and see how far we have come in such a relatively short time,’ said IBM’s Bernard Meyerso.

‘The first electronic programmable computers, built in the 1940s, were essentially really fast electronic calculators.

 Then came the mainframe, the PC, the Internet and social networking.

Today, we’re entering the era of cognitive computing–machines that help us think.’

‘One of the most intriguing aspects of this shift is our ability to give machines some of the capabilities of the right side of the human brain.

‘New technologies make it possible for machines to mimic and augment the senses. ‘

Today, we see the beginnings of sensing machines in self-parking cars and biometric security–and the future is wide open.

The firm claims in five years machines will be able to see, and understand, imagesThe firm claims in five years machines will be able to see, and understand, images

‘These five predictions show how cognitive technologies can improve our lives, and they’re windows into a much bigger landscape –the coming era of cognitive systems.

‘But the point isn’t to replicate human brains.

We humans are no slouches when it comes to procreation.

‘And this isn’t about replacing human thinking with machine thinking.

‘Once again; not necessary.

‘Rather, in the era of cognitive systems, humans and machines will collaborate to produce better results–each bringing their own superior skills to the partnership.

‘The machines will be more rational and analytic. We’ll provide the judgment, empathy, morale compass and creativity.’

IBM also says machines will be able to hear in five years and know when we are talking to themIBM also says machines will be able to hear in five years and know when we are talking to them

Computers will also be able to taste - and even predict what food we like based on out eating habits.

Computers will also be able to taste – and even predict what food we like based on out eating habits.

Computers will also be able to smell - and have sensitive enough noses to be able to detect infections on our breath and tell us if the food we are about to eat has bacteria in

Computers will also be able to smell – and have sensitive enough noses to be able to detect infections on our breath and tell us if the food we are about to eat has bacteria in

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2249504/IBM-reveals-vision-future-technology.html#ixzz2FKsbaytT

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Deloitte Avrupa E-Perakende Raporu 2

Deloitte Türkiye’nin e-perakende konusunda 8 ülke, 200 mağaza, 140 ölçüte göre yaptığı araştırma 2012 yılı ve ilerleyen yıllarda Avrupa’da dört küresel eğilimin ön plana çıkmasını öngörüyor:

Kaynak & Makale: Deloitte Türkiye

1. Kişiselleştirilmiş alışveriş deneyimi yaratabilmek için müşteri verilerinin analiz edilmesi: Coğrafi konum, mobil uygulama kullanımı ve toplumsal duyarlılık gibi veriler Facebook, Twitter ve Foursquare gönderilerinden elde edilebiliyor. Böylece müşteri verilerini analiz eden perakendeciler, müşterilerini yakından tanıyarak onlara özgü fırsatlar sunabiliyor.

2. Dijital mağaza içi temas noktalarının kullanılması ile satışların artırılması: Mobil araçlar müşterilere kapsamlı bilgi ve seçenek sunarak alışveriş deneyimini geliştirdiği gibi, belirli sektör ve ürün kategorileri için showroom ve sanal mağazalar açılıp stok maliyetleri düşürülüyor.

3. Yayıncılar ile işbirliği yapılması: Online perakendeciler dergi tipi makaleler kullanarak pazarda farklılaşmaya çalışırken, dergi yayıncıları ise reklamlar dışında gelirlerini artırabilecek e-perakende ortaklıklarına yöneliyor. Böylece perakendeciler ve dergi yayıncıları güçlerini birleştirerek müşterilere dergi stili alışveriş deneyimi sunuyor.

4. Amerikalı oyuncuların tehdidine karşı uluslararası pazarlara girilmesi: Amerikalı perakendecilerin Avrupa’da yerel perakendecilere göre daha hızlı büyüdüğü ve yerel pazarlarda tehdit oluşturduğu görülüyor. Bu nedenle perakendecilerin müşteri deneyimini geliştirmek için mağaza satış kanalı ile online kanalında yapacakları yatırımları dengelemeleri gerekiyor.

Sektör Bazında Online Perakendecilik

Tüketici Elektroniği: Rekabetin yüksek olduğu tüketici elektroniği pazarı Avrupa’daki en büyük online perakende segmenti olarak karşımıza çıkıyor. Pazarın en olgunlaştığı Fransa’daki perakendecilerin, ürün arama, sosyal ağlar entegrasyonu, özel ilgi grupları (community groups) ve sınırlar arası dağıtım alanlarında yetkinliklerinin geliştiği görülüyor.

Moda: Avrupa’nın en hızlı büyüyen online perakende sektörlerinden biri olan moda sektörünün, tüketici elektroniği ve genel ticari ürünler sektörleri ile kıyaslandığında daha az geliştiği görülüyor. Şaşırtıcı olmamakla beraber İtalya, Gucci ve Emporio Armani gibi köklü firmalarıyla Avrupa’nın moda sektör lideri olarak konumlanıyor.

Genel Ticari Ürünler: Büyük süpermarket ve mağazalar olmak üzere farklı tip perakendecilerden oluşan genel ticari ürünler sektörü, yaratıcılık ve olgunluk seviyesi bakımından İngiltere’de gelişmiş durumdadır. İngiltere perakendecilerinin genellikle müşterilerine tavsiye içerikli bloglar sunarak belirli ürün ve servislerin reklamını yaptığı görülüyor.

Mobil Ticaret: Tüketiciler birbirlerine daha çok bağlandıkça, müşteri deneyimi de değişime uğruyor. Şu anda, Avrupa tüketicilerinin %85’i telefonlarını günlük veya haftalık bazda internete girmek için kullanıyor ve her zaman ve her yerde alışveriş yapabilmeyi istiyor. Daha talepkar hale gelen tüketicilerin %36’sı ürün bilgilerine mağaza içindeyken ürün barkodlarını taratarak ulaşmak istiyor.

Bilgi Kurdu Deloitte Türkiye

Deloitte Türkiye Avrupa E-Perakende Endeksi

Deloitte Avrupa E-Perakende Raporu 1

Türkiye’nin önde gelen 25 online perakendecisinin %60’ı sadece e-perakende kanalını kullanıyor

Kaynak & Makale: Deloitte Türkiye

Deloitte tarafından yayınlanan e-perakende raporu, Türkiye’nin de dâhil olduğu Avrupa ülkelerinin durumunu ortaya koydu.

23 Mayıs 2012, İstanbul– Deloitte’un, Avrupa’daki online perakende oyuncularının durumunu özetlediği ve online iş modelini büyütmeyi hedefleyen perakendecilerin yeni eğilimlerini ortaya koyduğu “Avrupa E-perakende Endeksi” yayınlandı.

E-perakendede endüstri liderlerinin müşterileri ile ilişki kurmaya, alışveriş ve müşteri sipariş deneyimini geliştirmeye yönelik önemli adımlar attığı söylenen raporda, Avrupa e-perakende pazarının toplam satışlar bazında Amerika’nın e-perakende pazar büyüklüğünü aştığı ortaya çıkmıştır.

Raporda ayrıca hem sadece e-perakende satış kanalı kullanan (pure-play) perakendeciler hem de geleneksel perakendecilerin büyümeyi destekleyecek yeni satış kanalları arayışı içerisinde mobil ticaret ve mağaza içi teknolojilere yöneldiği belirtilmiştir.

Deloitte Türkiye Tüketim Endüstri Lideri ve Ortak Özgür Yalta “Sektörler ve ülkeler arasında göze çarpan farklılıklar, hem küçük ölçekli hem de büyük ölçekli perakendeciler için fırsatlar bulunduğunu gösterdi. Müşterilerin gün geçtikçe artan daha gelişmiş ve çok yönlü online yetkinlik beklentileri sebebi ile perakendecilerin e-perakende çabalarını arttırarak uluslararası ve rekabetçi bu pazarda başarılı bir şekilde faaliyetlerini sürdürmeleri gerekiyor.” dedi.

Avrupa farklılıkları barındırıyor

Çok parçalı bir yapıya sahip olan Avrupa e-perakende pazarı ülkeden ülkeye ve sektörden sektöre büyük farklılıklar gösteriyor. İngiltere ve Kuzey Avrupa’nın (Almanya, Hollanda ve İsveç) en yüksek online müşteri oranına sahip olmaları sebebi ile olgunluk seviyeleri daha yüksek durumda. Olgunluk bakımından Fransa ise İngiltere ve Kuzey Avrupa’nın ardından geliyor. Akdeniz ülkelerinde (İtalya, İspanya ve Türkiye) online alışveriş eğilimi, İngiltere, Kuzey Avrupa ve Fransa’ya göre daha düşük seviyede. Ancak müşteri odaklı e-perakende yetkinlikleri incelendiğinde Güney Avrupa’nın Kuzey Avrupa’dan daha üstün olduğu gözlemleniyor. Örneğin;

• Türkiye: Sadece e-perakende satış kanalı kullanan (pure-play) oyuncuların egemen olduğu pazarda, sevkiyat seçenekleri ve bütünleşik sipariş takibi yapısı gelişmiş olduğundan müşteri siparişlerini karşılama yetkinliği yüksek düzeyde.
• Fransa: Büyük tüketici elektroniği perakendecileri sayesinde ürün bulma konusunda en olgun pazar.
• İtalya: Büyük moda markalarıyla diğer Avrupa ülkelerine göre dünya çapında ürün teslimatı gerçekleştirmede lider.
• İngiltere: Dijital dergilerden sipariş ve mobil ticaret gibi yaratıcı özelliklere sahip olması nedeniyle en gelişmiş pazar.

Yabancı sermaye Türkiye’de e-perakendenin gelişmesini sağlıyor

Türkiye’nin önde gelen ilk 25 online perakendecisinin %60’ı sadece e-perakende satış kanalını kullanırken, %40’ı geleneksel perakende kanallarını kullanmaya devam ediyor. İkinci sırada gelen Hollanda pazarında ise en büyük ilk 25 online perakendecinin yarısı faaliyetlerine ilk olarak e-perakende satış kanalında başladığı görülüyor.

Avrupa pazarları incelendiğinde, Türkiye, Hollanda ve İsveç pazarlarında yer alan e-perakende satış kanalı kullanan oyuncuların, ürün arama, ödeme seçenekleri, müşteri odaklı tavsiyeler, sosyal medya entegrasyonu ve mobil ticaret konularında geleneksel perakendecilere göre daha gelişmiş olduğu gözlemleniyor.

Özellikle Türkiye’de bulunan Gittigidiyor.com, Markafoni.com, Trendyol.com gibi e-perakende satış kanalı kullanan oyuncular hızlı büyüyerek eBay, Amazon.com ve Tiger Global firmalarından yatırım sermayesi desteği aldıkları, yabancı sermaye desteğinin Türkiye e-perakende pazarının hızlı gelişiminde önemli rol oynadığı görülüyor.

Aşağıdaki infografikte Deloitte tarafından 8 ülkede yapılan araştırmanın özet sonuçlarından birini bulabilirsiniz:

Deloitte Avrupa E-Perakende Endeksi İnfografiği

Deloitte Avrupa E-Perakende Endeksi İnfografiği

Who’s an Entrepreneur Now? (Infographic)

A graphical breakdown shows how founder demographics have changed across the U.S. since 1996.

As U.S. entrepreneurship has grown over the last 15 years, entrepreneurs themselves have changed as well. Among the shifts: Entrepreneurs today tend to be more male, and more educated, than in the mid-1990s.

Rasmussen College has compiled data from Kauffman Foundation–an organization that studies entrepreneurship–and turned to Column Five to represent the information in the below graphic.

See how the demographics of American entrepreneurs have changed, as well as some notable trends among the country’s business owners. (Source: Inc.com)

Who's an Entrepreneur

How demographics of Entrepreneurs have changed since 1996 in US?

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